How Prediction Exams Can Change the Outcome of Your IB Math Exam

How Prediction Exams Can Change the Outcome of Your IB Math Exam

How Prediction Exams Can Change the Outcome of Your IB Math Exam

Many IB students are preparing for entry into highly competitive academic programs. Their best chance at getting into their desired programs is early admission. This is where prediction exams and algorithms come in as an often reliable method of predicting exam performance. The goal of prediction exams is to guarantee success in a future collegiate program. But in some cases, prediction exams can change the outcome of your IB Math exam.

What are Predicted Grades?

Every year, IB program teachers estimate grades based on student performance using a precise algorithm provided by the IB board. These predicted grades are then used by the board to set grade boundaries and manage student achievement expectations. In some cases, like during the 2021 exam year when a global pandemic forced the IB board to cancel exams, these predicted grades can serve as a measurement tool for college planning and admissions.

How are Predicted Grades Calculated?

The goal of IB predicted grades is to provide a realistic and accurate estimation of future performance based on individual student achievement. To achieve a realistic measurement, the IB board uses coursework that is externally evaluated along with teacher-assisted assessments. Predicated grades are used when it is in the best interest of the students or when a school closure forces the cancellation of an exam.

How Should Predicted Grades be Used?

While each school or program typically has its own process and use for predicted grades, it is important that the process is documented and applied fairly across all students. The IB board believes that transparent and open communication is important when it comes to predicted grades. Students and faculty should also facilitate a two-way dialogue regarding predicted grades.

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Students are who are provided sufficient access to information regarding their predicted grades and performance assessments can use this information to shape their progress during the remainder of the course. Predicted grades can be a motivator for students to exceed expectations if the teacher maintains an open dialogue regarding the students’ performance.

Risks of Relying on Predicted Grades

While the IB board recognizes that predicted grades are merely an estimation, there may be pressure from students, parents, or schools to artificially manipulate predicted grades. Therefore, colleges and universities should base final decisions on actual exam scores rather than predicted grades. However, predicted grades can be a useful tool for identifying potential applicants in highly competitive programs.

  • Inflating or deflating predicted grades is a gross mis-service to students.
  • Students may receive offers that are later withdrawn, setting them up for disappointment.
  • Students may receive access to a course they are not prepared to succeed in, setting them up for failure.
  • Students may miss out on an offer from their desired program, accepting a lesser offer instead.

The Bottom Line on Predicted Grades & Exam Scores

The IB program routinely uses predicted grades to set the bar for student success and in some cases, they may even rely on these grades if students are unable to sit for exams. Therefore, these grades are calculated with a great deal of accuracy and importance. Still, colleges and universities are encouraged to make final decisions based on actual exam scores. However, when used as a tool with an open dialogue between the student and teacher, predicted grades can be a great motivator towards improving exam scores.